By Zara Mansoor.
The US and its seat at the top will not fall easily
For the past some months it is often to be heard that USA’s influence is on decline but to predict the diminishing position of any country you have to go through the certain things like Geography, economy, military and strong predictions based on logics and facts.
In terms of geography US is very strong like it is controlling four oceans of the world and sits next to the Atlantic and Pacific Ocean. Every ship in every sea is under the watchful eye of US. To become hegemon it is of great importance to control seas because if a country can control seas then it can also have a strong influence on much of the population of the World. Earlier the control of seas by British allowed it to be a hegemon and it was the only reason due to which British controlled the 1/4th of the world’s population.
90% of global trade moves by sea. Currently, the United States Navy has near-absolute control of the four oceans of the world. The gap between the US and the rest of the world in terms of sea power is historically unprecedented as well.
The US economy is the biggest in the world, and the country has one of the maximum average incomes in the world, there are hardly any countries that are expected to compete the US in the close outlook. I don’t see US power being obscure in the short term or even medium term, US do have problems but the idea of fading power and its end is very embroidered. The reason China will not be able to replace US in any foreseeable future is that China, or any other major power are not in control of the sea lanes of the world. The ability to control the world’s 7 choke points defines a modern day ‘Empire,’ any nation that can outlay 800 billion US$/year in defense or so for the next two decades and be able to construct 7 fleets will one day emerge as the new Empire.
If we come towards the military budget we see, Military budget of US is $700 billion, Russia has 66 billion and China has $228 billion. So, the powers which everyone thinks can pass US in some time and become superpowers by introducing multipolarity in the World are absolutely wrong because there one finds a huge military difference between them and they cannot compete with US.
Here are some predictions that China will be at the top in terms of economy by 2030 which means it will pass the US. But it is the overall economic size of China, China still has some underdeveloped areas and it is not having strong per capita income which shows it cannot pass US even by 2050.
Without doubt, China has risen to become a huge player on the world stage, but it will take a lot to topple the crown of America.
Greater economic prosperity in China will mean that people will demand (and later demand) greater political freedoms. China is suffering from class issues, racial/ethnic tensions, serious labor issues, environmental issues and a host of other problems that it needs to address before “taking the show on the road.” Challenging the United States would be unwise as the easiest method for the US to respond to this is to covertly (or openly) support one of the many disaffected groups in China and allowing that particular problem to “boil over.” The United States isn’t as vulnerable in that arena as China and the Chinese government knows this. China has been a world superpower multiple times in the past. For reasons known only to the Chinese people, whenever it reaches beyond a certain point, internal issues and questionable decisions have resulted in internal conflicts and a inadequacy of China’s position.
What makes USA distinguished is her extraordinary combination of geo-strategic, consumptive and intellectual capital. This power has a total stranglehold over world peace and productivity hence, it is able to maintain US currency as the global hedge and currency of the last resort.
Some reasons we find out why America is enjoying the hegemony in the unipolar world and not going towards decline. If we take stock to the public statements of their leaders as a whole, the foreign policy establishment certainly appears concerned about the latest challenges to US Empire, especially the uncertainty that Trump’s election has introduced. But they also remain quite confident in their power to shape the world and steer the United States into a new age of global hegemony. Over the past few years, a number of high-level officials have expressed great confidence in the durability of US hegemony. They insisted that the declinist thesis is wrong and also have argued that the United States will remain the world’s dominant power well into the future. They all have fate in their country and leaders which terminate every disaster come every time towards them. Political instability of United States because of the elections didn’t affect its republic and continuing with its political system relatively healthy and functioning.
“Zara Mansoor is a student of media studies and based in Islamabad. She is an article writer, blogger and contributes to various magazines. She can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org“